Youth Voter Turnout Up in 2019 Chicago Municipal Elections; Future Voters on a Positive Trajectory

by Shawn P. Healy, PhD, Democracy Program Director

Much has been made about the lackluster turnout in Chicago’s municipal elections last week, particularly among younger voters. Personally, I have found coverage of turnout incomplete, and analysis of the underlying reasons for poor participation wanting. What follows is an attempt to at least partly rectify these concerns, drawing from data provided by the Chicago Board of Elections and a conversation with their spokesman, Jim Allen.

Let’s begin with the understanding that voter turnout tends to decline the more local the election, from presidential, to congressional midterms that include the governor in most states, to muncipal elections. The latter are often held off cycle, purposely so, to protect local officeholders from national waves like those enjoyed by Republicans in 2010 and 2014, and Democrats in 2006 and 2018.

In Chicago, this means primary elections are held in the dead of winter following hotly-contested statewide elections in the fall. In most cycles, the February primary is decisive, as candidates garnering a majority of the primary vote win outright. This was the case in 35-plus wards and with the City Clerk (uncontested) last week.

In both 2015 and 2019, no mayoral candidate broke the fifty-percent threshold, resulting in an April runoff. It’s fair to say that a fourteen-candidate field in 2019 made for difficult decision-making, many voters walking into the voting booth on election day undecided and some preferring to take a rain check until the field was winnowed to two. Moreover, only Amara Enyia made a concerted effort to mobilize young voters.

While absentee ballots are still trickling in, a little more than a third of registered voters cast ballots last week, but the 35.3% turnout is the second highest this century behind 2011. And beneath the surface is a much larger denominator given the massive spike in registration and turnout last fall.

Here’s how November 2018 turnout broke down by age group:

Age Group	Voted	Registered	Turnout
18-24	54,780	139,138	39.45%
25-34	189,097	352,138	53.7%
35-44	163,386	272,865	59.9%
45-54	151,682	232,071	65.4%
55-64	160,673	228,211	70.4%
65 and older	192,433	278,485	69.1%

If last fall was the benchmark, then last week’s turnout was deeply disappointing, but numbers were actually up across the board by age group from 2015 to 2019, and the most pronounced gains, albeit modest, were among younger voter cohorts.

Voting, and civic engagement in general, follows a life cycle effect as evident in turnout over the past two municipal election cycles. Young people tend to be more transient, and as we age, we establish ourselves at the community level and have a sense that the stakes of elections are higher with home ownership, tax obligations, and children in public schools, among other variables.

Trust that the next generation of voters is well on its way to lifelong, informed, and effective participation in our democracy. Chicago Public Schools has developed a model civic engagement program for students, including a high school civics course in all but a few IB schools one year ahead of schedule. CPS is also well-positioned for a parallel middle school requirement given the traction that service learning, student voices committees, and revised curriculum are gaining in elementary schools serving students grades K-8.

And nonprofit organizations like Mikva Challenge and Chicago Votes deserve credit for providing student election judges in every Chicago ward in the case of the former, and school-based parades to the polls in the case of the latter.

Finally, state legislation to allow municipalities to lower the voting age to 17, and separately, to enable prospective voters as young as 16 to preregister to vote under Illinois’ new automatic voter registration system would allow CPS and districts throughout the state to further align civic learning opportunities with voting and elections.