The Fifteen Days of Congress

by Shawn P. Healy, PhD, Democracy Program Director

A chaotic close to a political year like no other provides a yuletide feast of current events conversations in social studies classrooms. But an enterprising educator struggles with pairings and portions, and this post is intended to provide last-minute tips to help make sense of it all before we send students on their merry way.

Let’s begin with recent indictments against high-ranking Trump Administration and campaign officials. Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is clearly working his way to the top, and congressional investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 election continue simultaneously. What the President knew and when/ if he knew it remain open questions likely to carry into the New Year and perhaps beyond. Yet echoes of Watergate and Iran Contra drum louder by the day, imperiling the Trump presidency and forcing us to revisit the succession plan for our nation’s highest office.

Other than the sometimes successful use of parliamentary tricks, including the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch, Congress has mostly swung and missed despite unified Republican control of the three branches of national government. Efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act failed repeatedly, but the zombie repeal is still alive as part of the Senate’s tax reform legislation that passed early Saturday morning.

Given that the House and Senate tax bills vary in the volume and timing of tax relief to both individuals and corporations, a conference committee comes next. Its final product isn’t guaranteed to survive scrutiny of both bodies once more, as the needs of the Tea Party-inspired House Freedom Caucus must be balanced with the concerns of Senate moderates and wildcards like Susan Collins (ME), Bob Corker (TN), and Jeff Flake (AZ).

The content of the current legislation is a civics lesson in its own right. President Trump was notably elected in part to a coalition of rural, white, working-class workings, yet the prime beneficiaries of this bill are clearly the Republican donor class that pulled out all of its stops to deny him the Party’s nomination in early 2016. Congress clearly feels obligated to reward its benefactors heading into a midterm election year.

Also fascinating is the abandonment of commitment to deficit reduction by the GOP. A balanced budget was long core to the rhetorical plank of the Party, yet the current legislation is projected to add $1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, even with increased economic growth considered.

Speaking of the debt, the ceiling is set to expire once more, and Republicans will need to rely on some Democratic votes to raise the borrowing limit on the nation’s credit card in order to avoid default. Both sides will attempt to extract unrelated concessions, including funding for a border wall by President Trump and permanent protections for DREAMers among Democrats. Finally, should the ACA mandate be repealed under the guise of tax reform, look for bi-partisan discussions of price supports for the insurance industry to control rising health insurance premiums that would drive millions out of the private market.

Better to be in the classroom than Congress with only 15 school days remaining before holiday break. Here’s hoping this cliff notes version of the compressed political calendar keeps you one (or many) steps ahead of students with sugar plums dancing in their heads.